The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

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The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

• Dec. 1, 2017 • Locations: United States of America • Topics: Geriatric Classification, Statistics/Trends, Databases, Rehabilitation/Recidivism

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The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

U N I T E D S TAT E S S E N T E NC I NG COM M I S S ION

United States Sentencing Commission
One Columbus Circle, N.E.
Washington, DC 20002
www.ussc.gov

William H. Pryor, Jr.
Acting Chair
Rachel E. Barkow
Commissioner
Charles R. Breyer
Commissioner
Danny C. Reeves
Commissioner
Zachary C. Bolitho
Ex Officio
J. Patricia Wilson Smoot
Ex Officio

Kenneth P. Cohen
Staff Director
Glenn R. Schmitt
Director
Office of Research and Data
December 2017

Kim Steven Hunt, Ph.D., Senior Research Associate, Office of Research and Data
Billy Easley II, J.D., Legislative Affairs Specialist, Office of Legislative and Public Affairs

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Part One

Part Two

Part Three

Part Four

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

DEFINING AND MEASURING
RECIDIVISM

CHARACTERISTICS OF
RECIDIVISM STUDY GROUP

INTRODUCTION TO AGE AND
RECIDIVISM AMONG FEDERAL
OFFENDERS
9

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

Part Five

Part Six

Part Seven

Part Eight

RECIDIVISM RATES AMONG
FEDERAL OFFENDERS BY AGE

CONCLUSION

ENDNOTES

APPENDIX

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

Part One

Executive Summary

Part One:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Introduction
The United States Sentencing Commission1 began studying recidivism
shortly after the enactment of the Sentencing Reform Act of 1984 (“SRA”),
and has issued several recent publications examining recidivism rates
among federal offenders released in 2005. The Commission’s first report in
this series, Recidivism Among Federal Offenders: A Comprehensive Overview
(“Recidivism Overview Report”), was released in March 2016 and discussed
this research project in greater detail. As noted in the previous reports in this
series,2 recidivism information is central to three of the primary purposes of
punishment described in the SRA—specific deterrence, incapacitation, and
rehabilitation—all of which focus on prevention of future crimes through
correctional intervention. Information about recidivism is also relevant to the
Commission’s obligation to formulate sentencing policy that “reflect[s], to the
extent practicable, advancements in knowledge of human behavior as it relates
to the sentencing process.”3 Considerations of recidivism by federal offenders
were also central to the Commission’s initial work in developing the Guidelines
Manual’s criminal history provisions4 as well as its ongoing work.5

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

The Commission’s current recidivism research substantially expands on the
scope of previous Commission recidivism projects. In addition to a different set
of offenders—U.S. citizen federal offenders released in 2005—the current study
group (25,431 offenders) is much larger than those in previous Commission
studies. A larger study group allows for data analysis across many different
subgroups of federal offenders, including those sentenced under different
provisions in the guidelines.
This report is the fourth in this series and focuses on the relationship
between age at release and recidivism. This report examines the impact of the
aging process on federal offender recidivism and, once age is accounted for, the
impact of other offense and offender characteristics.

Key Findings
The key findings of the Commission’s study of federal offenders’ recidivism
by age at release are that:

•
Older offenders were substantially less likely than younger
offenders to recidivate following release. Over an eight-year follow-up
period, 13.4 percent of offenders age 65 or older at the time of release
were rearrested compared to 67.6 percent of offenders younger than
age 21 at the time of release. The pattern was consistent across age
groupings, and recidivism measured by rearrest, reconviction, and
reincarceration declined as age increased.

•
For federal offenders under age 30 at the time of release, over
one-fourth (26.6%) who recidivated had assault as their most common
new charge. By comparison, for offenders 60 years old or older at the
time of release, almost one quarter (23.7%) who recidivated had a
public order offense6 as their most serious new charge.
•
Age and criminal history exerted a strong influence on
recidivism. For offenders in Criminal History Category I, the rearrest
rate ranged from 53.0 percent for offenders younger than age 30 at
the time of release to 11.3 percent for offenders age 60 or older. For
offenders in Criminal History Category VI, the rearrest rate ranged
from 89.7 percent for offenders younger than age 30 at the time of
release to 37.7 percent for offenders age 60 or older.
•
Education level influenced recidivism across almost all
categories. For example, among offenders under age 30 at the time
of release, college graduates had a substantially lower rearrest rate
(27.0%) than offenders who did not complete high school (74.4%).
Similarly, among offenders age 60 or older at the time of release,
college graduates had a somewhat lower rearrest rate (11.6%) than
offenders who did not complete high school (17.2%).

•
Age exerted a strong influence on recidivism across all
sentence length categories. Older offenders were less likely to
recidivate after release than younger offenders who had served similar
sentences, regardless of the length of sentence imposed. In addition,
for younger offenders there was some association between the length
of the original federal sentence and the rearrest rates, as younger
offenders with sentences of up to six months generally had lower
rearrest rates than younger offenders with longer sentences. However,
among all offenders sentenced to one year or more of imprisonment,
there was no clear association between the length of sentence and the
rearrest rate.
•
For certain major offense types, the type of federal offense that
offenders had committed also had an effect on recidivism across age
groups. For example, firearms offenders had a substantially higher
rearrest rate across all age categories than drug trafficking offenders,
who in turn had a higher rearrest rate across all age categories than
fraud offenders. For example, for offenders under age 30 at the time of
release, the rearrest rates were 79.3 percent (firearms), 62.5 percent
(drug trafficking), and 53.6 percent (fraud). Similarly, for offenders
age 60 and older at the time of release, the rearrest rates were 30.2
percent (firearms), 17.5 percent (drug trafficking), and 12.5 percent
(fraud).
•
At every age group, federal prisoners had a substantially
lower recidivism rate than state prisoners who also were released
in 2005 and tracked by the Bureau of Justice Statistics. For example,
for offenders age 24 or younger at the time of release, 63.2 percent
of federal prisoners were rearrested within five years compared to
over four-fifths (84.1%) of state prisoners. Like federal prisoners,
older state prisoners were less likely to recidivate than younger state
prisoners.
The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

Part Two

Defining and Measuring Recidivism

Part Two:
DEFINING AND MEASURING RECIDIVISM

Defining and Measuring Recidivism
Recidivism “refers to a person’s relapse into criminal behavior, often after
the person receives sanctions or undergoes intervention for a previous crime.”7
Measuring recidivism informs decision making about issues such as pretrial
detention, appropriate sentence type and length, prisoner classification, prison
programming, and offender supervision in the community. It also allows
policymakers to evaluate the performance of the criminal justice system as
a whole.8 Recidivism is typically measured by criminal acts that resulted
in the rearrest, reconviction, and/or reincarceration of the offender over a
specified period of time. These are the three recidivism measures used in this
report, but the report primarily relies on the first—rearrest—with additional
data regarding reconviction and reincarceration reported in the Appendix.
Providing data about multiple measures of recidivism allows users to select the
performance measure best suited to their outcome of interest.

Reincarceration classifies a person as a recidivist if a conviction or revocation
resulted in a prison or jail sentence as punishment. The reincarceration measure
counts offenders who were reported as being incarcerated by the Federal
Bureau of Prisons, state prison, or local jail for any term of incarceration based
on their recidivism events. Incomplete criminal records also create missing
information about reincarceration.11

Reconviction classifies a person as a recidivist if an arrest resulted in a
subsequent judicial conviction.9 Violations and revocations of supervision are
not included in reconvictions since no formal prosecution occurred. While states
have improved the completeness of their criminal history records, a recent
federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an
arrest.10 Such gaps occurred in the criminal records used in this report, and lead
to an undercounting of reconvictions, because missing dispositions for rearrests
are treated as if reconviction and reincarceration did not occur.

In undertaking its current recidivism research, the Commission selected a
follow-up period of eight years. It considered all recidivism events (including
felonies, misdemeanors, and “technical” violations of the conditions of
supervision), except minor traffic offenses, which occurred over that eight-year
period. While this report includes summary findings using all three measures
(rearrest, reconviction, and reincarceration), it primarily relies on rearrest
data in providing more detailed information about the recidivism of federal
offenders.

Rearrest classifies a person as a recidivist if he or she has been arrested for
a new crime after being released into the community directly on probation or
after serving a term of imprisonment. Rearrest also includes arrests for alleged
violations of conditions of federal probation, federal supervised release, or state
parole. The number of rearrests in the Commission’s analysis is based on the
number of unique arrest dates, regardless of the number of individual charges
arising from a single arrest event. Thus, if an offender was arrested on a single
occasion for both driving under the influence and possession of cocaine, that
arrest date would constitute a single rearrest event.

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

Many rearrests do not ultimately result in a reconviction or reincarceration
for reasons relating to procedural safeguards (e.g., the suppression of evidence
for an unconstitutional search or seizure), lack of sufficient evidence to
convict or revoke, and prosecutorial or judicial resource limitations. To the
extent that the rearrest event is an accurate indicator of relapse into criminal
behavior, excluding non-conviction or non-incarceration events will result
in underestimation of recidivism. Even using the least restrictive measure,
rearrest, does not count the full extent of offender recidivism, as many crimes
go unreported to police or, if reported, do not result in an arrest. For these
reasons, no measure is perfect, and reporting several measures provides a more
complete and nuanced picture of recidivism. The three measures overlap in
some areas—meaning all offenders who were reconvicted or reincarcerated also
were necessarily rearrested. Some offenders who were reconvicted, however,
were not reincarcerated. Generally speaking, however, the measure of rearrest
is larger than the measure of reconviction, which in turn is larger than the
measure of reincarceration.

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

Part Three
Introduction to Age and
Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

Part Three:
INTRODUCTION TO AGE AND RECIDIVISM AMONG FEDERAL OFFENDERS

Age and Recidivism Among Federal Offenders
This report examines the impact of the aging process on recidivism by
federal offenders. First, recidivism rates are presented by age at release.
Next, the time to the first recidivism event is shown by age at release for
those offenders who recidivated. Studying the timing of recidivism can help
in understanding the process of desistance across various age cohorts. The
number of recidivism events and most serious type of post-release offense
among those who recidivated by age at release are also discussed. Contrasting
the number and nature of crimes committed across age groups may reveal more
information about the threat to public safety posed by various age groups as
well as the process of desisting from crime across the aging process.
The report then investigates the association between recidivism and factors
such as criminal history, demographic factors, offense characteristics, and
sentence length. This information is reported by age group in order to better
distinguish the impact of these factors while controlling for age at release.

As first noted in the Recidivism Overview Report, numerous recidivism
studies document well that older offenders are at lower risk for reoffending,12
and the Commission’s own research has confirmed this finding for federal
offender populations.13 The Commission’s study found that among all federal
offenders released into the community in 2005, those who were below age 21
at release had the highest rearrest rate at over two-thirds (67.6%). Conversely,
those oldest at age of release, over 60 years old, had the lowest recidivism rate
(16.0 %). For each age grouping shown in the previous report, the older the age
group, the lower the rearrest rate. The same pattern held for reconviction and
reincarceration rates.

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

According to the National Institute of Justice, “the prevalence of offending
tends to increase from late childhood, peak in the teenage years (from 15 to
19) and then decline in the early 20s.”14 Scholars have used official arrest data
collected by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) to construct an age-crime
curve15 which demonstrates graphically the relationship between age and
arrests. National arrest data collected by the FBI in the Uniform Crime Report
(UCR) since 193016 and compiled in the FBI’s Crimes in the United States report
since 199517 has consistently supported this conclusion concerning age and
crime.

Figure 1 shows a comparison of arrests by five-year age intervals beginning
at age 20 for all 2016 U.S. arrests reported to the FBI and all adult arrests
reported in criminal history records provided by the FBI for federal offenders
released in 2005, by identical age groupings.18 To construct the federal offender
data, the Commission aggregated all arrest incidents from the federal offenders’
entire criminal history as reported on state and federal records.19 That is, each
arrest charge is collected and grouped by the age of the offender at the time of
that arrest, in the same manner as set forth in Table 20 of the 2016 Crimes in the
United States report.

Figure 1 demonstrates the close tie between older age and declining arrests,
in both the FBI’s UCR20 and prior arrest data obtained on federal offenders from
the FBI’s Interstate Identification Index (III) system, which is a national index
of criminal histories. In general, the Commission found that total adult arrests
for federal offenders were highest in the 20-24 age group, and declined sharply
thereafter. The national FBI adult arrests in 2016 display the same pattern.

Since arrests are closely associated with age, it is not surprising that federal
offenders who enter and exit the federal system at younger ages are more
prone to recidivate. In the following sections, this report examines the age
and recidivism connection in greater detail. Then this report analyzes age in
combination with other offense and offender characteristics. This combination
in effect statistically controls for age and reveals the influence, or absence of
influence, of other factors which may be thought to impact recidivism over and
above the influence of aging.

For both federal offenders’ prior arrest history and national 2016 arrests as
reported by the FBI, older age groups had fewer arrests. While there are vast
differences among individuals which are not explained by age, age is generally
a strong factor influencing the likelihood of committing crime, although the
reasons for this are complex.21

Fig. 1 Total Arrests by Age
All 2016 U.S. Arrests Compared to Recidivism Study Offenders’ Arrest Records
2016 Crime in the United States (FBI) Arrests by Age
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
Lifetime Arrests by Federal Offenders Released in 2005
80,000

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 and over

70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000

20,000
10,000

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 and over

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT and U.S. Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation Uniform Crime
Report, Crime in the United States (2015). The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis.

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

Part Four

Characteristics of
Recidivism Study Group

Part Four:
CHARACTERISTICS OF RECIDIVISM STUDY GROUP

Characteristics of Recidivism Study Group
Fig. 2 Age at Release for Recidivism Study Offenders

This report examines 25,431 offenders who were released into the
community (either from federal prison or on to probation) in calendar year
2005 and, as discussed in the Recidivism Overview Report, were federal
offenders:
•
•

55 to 59 Years
4.9%
(n=1,235)

•

who have valid FBI numbers which could be located in criminal
history repositories (in at least one of the 50 states, DC, or
federal records);

•

who were not reported dead, escaped, or detained; and
whose federal sentence was not vacated.

The advantages of this large study group are substantial. Having several
thousand offenders allows more precise estimates of recidivism rates across
different subgroups. For example, there are 1,048 released offenders who were
older than 60 years of age.
Offender Demographics

The largest age cohort in this study was those offenders aged 30 to 34
(18.3% of the total) at the time they were released from federal custody into
the community (Figure 2). The next largest cohorts at time of release were
offenders aged 25 to 29 (16.4%) and 35 to 39 (15.3%).

Among the racial and ethnic groups analyzed, most White offenders were
40 years or older (51.6%) at the time of their release (Figure 3). This is the
only racial group in the study with more than half of offenders over the age of
40. Black and Hispanic offenders were concentrated in the younger than 40 age
cohorts, with Hispanic offenders the youngest of all racial groups (70.9% were
younger than 40 at the time of release). The Other race category, which includes
American Indians, Alaskan Natives and Asians were also mostly below age 40
(62.9%).
The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

Younger than 21 Years
1.6%
(n=398)
21 to 24 Years
8.8%
(n=2,234)

25 to 29 Years
16.4%
(n=4,164)

45 to 49 Years
10.1%
(n=2,569)

•
whose pre-sentence investigation report was submitted to the
Commission;
•

65 Years or
Older
2.1%
(n=536)

50 to 54 Years
6.8%
(n=1,734)

who are citizens;

who re-entered the community after discharging their
sentences of incarceration or by commencing a term of
probation in 2005;

60 to 64 Years
2.6%
(n=668)

40 to 44 Years
13.1%
(n=3,325)

30 to 34 Years
18.3%
(n=4,635)

35 to 39 Years
15.3%
(n=3,888)

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The
Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the
analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

Fig. 3 Race of Recidivism Study Offenders by Age at Release
60 Years
or Older
7.6%

White
n=11,074

50 to 59
Years
16.2%

40 to 49
Years
27.8%
50 to 59
Years
7.5%

60 Years or Hispanic
Older
n=4,508
2.8%

40 to 49
Years
18.7%
30 to 39
Years
32.9%

Younger
than 30
Years
20.5%

50 to 59
Years
8.4%

60 Years or Black
Older
n=8,607
2.2%

40 to 49
Years
19.6%
30 to 39
Years
27.9%

Younger than
30 Years
38.0%

50 to 59
Years
9.3%
40 to 49
Years
23.9%

60 Years or Other
n=1,174
Older
3.9%

Younger than
30 Years
28.0%

30 to 39
Years
41.9%

Younger than
30 Years
34.2%

30 to 39
Years
28.7%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were
missing information necessary to perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

The average age of offenders at the time of release increased as educational
level increased (Figure 4). Offenders who did not complete high school were
the youngest group at the age of release, with 68.5 percent below the age of 40.
College graduates were significantly older on average than offenders in other
educational cohorts, with around 71.0 percent of college graduates age 40 or
older.

Female offenders were slightly younger on average than male offenders
at the time of release (Figure 5). Specifically, a greater proportion of female
offenders were younger than 30 at the time of release, 31.2 percent, compared
to 25.8 percent of male offenders.

Fig. 4 Education of Recidivism Study Offenders by Age at Release

Fig. 5 Gender of Recidivism Study Offenders by Age at Release

Less Than High School
n=8,641

60 Years or
Older
50 to 59 4.0%
Years
8.1%

Younger
than 30
Years
35.5%

40 to 49
Years
19.4%

30 to 39
Years
33.0%

60 Years or
Older
4.6%

50 to 59
Years
13.8%

40 to 49
Years
24.3%

Some College
n=5,399

Younger than
30 Years
21.7%

30 to 39
Years
35.6%

60 Years or
Older
3.8%

50 to 59
Years
10.2%

High School Graduate
n=9,309
Younger than
30 Years
25.9%

40 to 49
Years
24.9%

60 Years or
Older
12.8%

50 to 59
Years
29.3%

30 to 39
Years
35.1%

College Graduate
n=1,879

Younger
than 30
Years
5.9%

30 to 39
Years
23.0%

60 Years or
Older
5.1%

50 to 59 Years
11.8%

40 to 49
Years
23.1%

Male
n=20,723

Younger than
30 Years
25.8%

30 to 39 Years
34.2%

60 Years or
Older
3.2%

Female
n=4,654

50 to 59 Years
11.1%

Younger than
30 Years
31.2%

40 to 49
Years
23.9%
30 to 39 Years
30.7%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing
information necessary to perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

40 to 49
Years
28.9%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing
information necessary to perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

Part Four:
CHARACTERISTICS OF RECIDIVISM STUDY GROUP

Federal Offense Type and Criminal History

Drug trafficking offenders were generally the youngest group of offenders
at the time of release (Figure 6). Of all drug trafficking offenders, 68.0 percent
were below the age of 40. By comparison, 66.5 percent of firearms offenders
and 60.3 percent of robbery offenders were below the age of 40. Fraud
offenders were the oldest group with 55.0 percent age 40 or older at the time of
release.

Fig. 6 Primary Offense Type of Recidivism Study Offenders by Age at Release
60 Years or
Older
3.0%
50 to 59
Years
8.3%

Drug Trafficking

60 Years
n=10,577
or Older
50 to 59 2.7%
Years
9.0%

60 Years
or Older
2.6%

40 to 49
Years
20.3%

60 Years or
Older
8.6%

50 to 59
Years
18.0%

40 to 49
Years
28.4%

Younger than
30 Years
29.4%

30 to 39 Years
38.6%

Fraud
n=3,440

Younger than
30 Years
14.9%

30 to 39
Years
30.2%

50 to 59
Years
9.8%
40 to 49
Years
27.1%

Robbery
n=1,098

30 to 39
Years
34.2%

Younger than
30 Years
33.3%

30 to 39 Years
33.2%

All Other
n=7,031

50 to 59
Years
14.5%

Younger than
30 Years
25.8%

40 to 49
Years
24.8%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing
information necessary to perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

Fig. 7 Weapon Enhancement of Recidivism Study Offenders by Age at Release

Firearms
n=3,238

40 to 49
Years
22.3%
Younger
than 30
Years
26.1%
60 Years or
Older
7.1%

Over two-thirds (67.0%) of offenders subject to weapons enhancements
were younger than age 40 at the time of release compared to 59.6 percent of
offenders who were not subject to such enhancements (Figure 7).

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

30 to 39
Years
27.9%

60 Years or
Older
2.6%

50 to 59 Years
8.9%

Weapon Enhancement
n=2,498
Younger than
30 Years
26.4%

40 to 49
Years
21.5%

60 Years or
Older
5.0%

50 to 59 Years
12.0%

No Weapon Enhancement
n=22,888
Younger than
30 Years
26.8%

40 to 49
Years
23.4%

30 to 39 Years
40.6%

30 to 39 Years
32.8%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing
information necessary to perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

Overall, the age of offenders increased as the offenders’ prior criminal
history increased (Figure 8). A federal offender’s prior criminal history score
is calculated under Chapter Four of the Guidelines Manual and assigned one of
six Criminal History Categories (CHC), CHC I through VI, with CHC VI being the
highest prior record category.22 Category I had a larger proportion of offenders
younger than 30 years (27.8%) than Category VI (11.1%).23 Conversely,
Category VI had the largest group of offenders age 40 or older (47.1%).

Fig. 8 Criminal History Category of Recidivism Study Offenders by Age at Release
60 Years
or Older
6.5%

Category I
n=13,549

50 to 59
Years
13.9%

30 to 39
Years
28.7%

40 to 49
Years
23.1%

50 to 59
Years
7.7%

60 Years
or Older
2.1%

40 to 49
Years
20.0%

Younger
than 30
Years
27.8%

Category IV
n=1,995

Younger
than 30
Years
28.5%

30 to 39
Years
41.9%

60 Years or Older Category II
n=3,082
3.4%

50 to 59
Years
10.3%

40 to 49
Years
21.9%

60 Years Category V
or Older
n=1,119
50 to 59 1.6%
Years
8.2%
40 to 49
Years
25.2%

Younger than
30 Years
29.0%

30 to 39
Years
35.4%
Younger
than 30
Years
21.8%

30 to 39
Years
43.2%

60 Years
or Older
2.9%
50 to 59
Years
8.1%

Fig. 9 Base Offense Level of Recidivism Study Offenders by Age at Release

Category III
n=3,610

40 to 49
Years
20.7%

50 to 59
Years
11.7%

The offender’s base offense level is determined by applying the Chapter Two
guideline level associated with the conviction offense (Figure 9). A high base
offense level, defined as a base offense level of 32 or higher, was associated with
a high percentage of offenders between the ages of 30 to 39. Offenders between
the ages of 30 to 39 were the only age group to increase consistently across
all three categories as shown in Figure 9, from 29.8 percent to 45.4 percent.
Offenders younger than 30 reached a high of 31.2 percent in the base offense
level 26 to 31 category but decreased to 18.1 percent among the most serious
category of offenders with a base offense level between 32 and 43.

60 Years Category VI
n=1,921
or Older
2.8%

40 to 49
Years
32.6%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing
information necessary to perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

Younger
than 30
Years
30.3%

30 to 39
Years
38.0%

Younger than
30 Years
11.1%

50 to 59
Years
12.9%

60 Years or
Older
2.7%
50 to 59
Years
8.5%
40 to 49
Years
20.2%

30 to 39
Years
41.8%

BOL 26 to 31
n=4,463

60 Years or
Older
5.6%

40 to 49
Years
24.1%
Younger
than 30
Years
31.2%

30 to 39
Years
37.5%

BOL 6 to 25
n=16,937
Younger than
30 Years
27.6%

30 to 39
Years
29.8%

60 Years or
Older
3.5%

BOL 32 to 43
n=3,967

50 to 59
Years
10.0%
40 to 49
Years
23.0%

Younger than
30 Years
18.1%

30 to 39
Years
45.4%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing
information necessary to perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

Part Four:
CHARACTERISTICS OF RECIDIVISM STUDY GROUP

Sentences Imposed

For statistical purposes, the Commission groups the type of federal sentence
originally imposed into four categories: prison only, prison and community
confinement, probation and confinement, and probation or fine only.24 Prison
only offenders were the youngest group at release in the Commission’s study,
with 61.9 percent of the offenders who received a prison only sentence under
the age of 40 (Figure 10). Offenders who served prison and community
confinement sentences were the oldest, with 48.1 percent age 40 or older.
Fig. 10 Sentence Type of Recidivism Study Offenders by Age at Release
60 Years or
Older
4.1%
50 to 59
Years
11.0%
40 to 49
Years
23.0%

Prison Only
n=19,572

Younger than
30 Years
26.3%

30 to 39
Years
35.6%

Probation and Confinement
n=1,191

60 Years or
Older
7.3%

50 to 59
Years
15.0%

40 to 49
Years
23.7%

Younger than
30 Years
28.6%

30 to 39
Years
25.4%

Prison/Community Split Sentence
n=973
Younger than

60 Years or
Older
6.2%

30 Years
26.8%

50 to 59
Years
14.4%

30 to 39
Years
25.1%

40 to 49
Years
27.5%
60 Years or
Older
6.8%

Probation or Fine Only
n=3,613

Younger
than 30
Years
28.8%

50 to 59
Years
14.0%

40 to 49
Years
23.1%

30 to 39
Years
27.4%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that
were missing information necessary to perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

The Commission also considered the length of the federal sentence imposed
on those in the study group. Offenders serving the longest sentences were the
oldest at time of release (Figure 11). For offenders who served a sentence of
120 months or more, the proportion of offenders who were age 40 or older at
the time they were released was 48.6 percent, higher than any other group.
In contrast, among offenders who served a sentence of 60 to 119 months, the
proportion age 40 or older was 36.3 percent, the same proportion as offenders
who served a sentence of 24 to 59 months.
Fig. 11 Length of Federal Sentence of Recidivism Study Offenders by Age at Release
60 Years
or Older
5.3%

Up to 6 Months
n=1,047

50 to 59
Years
14.0%

40 to 49
Years
26.1%

60 Years or
Older
4.0%

50 to 59
Years
10.6%

40 to 49
Years
21.7%

Younger than
30 Years
28.1%

30 to 39
Years
26.6%

24 to 59 Months
n=8,011

Younger than
30 Years
30.7%

30 to 39
Years
33.0%

60 Years
or Older
5.3%

6 to 11 Months
n=760

50 to 59
Years
9.1%

40 to 49
Years
25.0%
60 Years 60 to 119 Months
or Older
n=4,548
3.4%
50 to 59
Years
9.8%
40 to 49
Years
23.1%

Younger than
30 Years
34.7%

30 to 39
Years
25.9%

Younger than
30 Years
21.9%

30 to 39
Years
41.8%

60 Years
or Older
4.7%

50 to 59
Years
11.0%

12 to 23 Months
n=3,644

Younger than
30 Years
33.0%

40 to 49
Years
21.8%

60 Years
or Older
5.1%

50 to 59
Years
14.7%

30 to 39
Years
29.6%

120 Months or More
Younger than
n=2,521
30 Years
7.3%

40 to 49
Years
28.8%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing
information necessary to perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

30 to 39
Years
44.0%

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

Part Five

Recidivism Rates Among
Federal Offenders by Age

Part Five:
RECIDIVISM RATES AMONG FEDERAL OFFENDERS BY AGE

Recidivism Rates Among Federal Offenders by Age
The Commission found that younger offenders were more likely to be
rearrested than older offenders, were rearrested faster than older offenders,
and committed more serious offenses after they were released than older
offenders. As shown in Table 1, the Commission’s research shows that the
younger than 30 age group had the highest rearrest rate (64.8%) and the rate
declined with each age group that follows to a low of 16.4 percent. Younger
cohorts had more arrest events during the eight-year follow-up period, a median
of three arrest events for the younger than 30 age group compared to one event
for those age 50 and older.
The Commission ranked new offenses in order of seriousness for those who
reoffended. The most serious type of offense likely to cause rearrest also varied
by age, from assault (for all age groups under the age of 50) to public order
offenses (for age groups 50 and older).
Table 1 Overview of Age and Recidivism Study Findings
Rearrest Recidivism Measure
Younger than 30
Years
n=6,796
Percent
Median Time to Recidivism Event
Median Number of Recidivism Events
Most Serious Post-Release Event

64.8%

17 Months
3

Assault
(26.6%, n=1,170)

30 to 39 Years
n=8,523

53.6%

22 Months
2

Assault
(24.1%, n=1,102)

40 to 49 Years
n=5,894

50 to 59 Years
n=2,969

43.2%

26.8%

22 Months
2

25 Months
1

Other Public
Assault
Order Offense
(20.3%, n=517)
(22.5%, n=179)

Fig. 12 Time to First Rearrest of Recidivism Study Offenders
100%
90%

80%

Median time to
recidivism

70%

Younger than 30 Years, 64.8%

60%

Age 30 to 39 Years, 53.6%

50%

60 Years or
Older
n=1,204

Age 40 to 49 Years, 43.2%

40%

16.4%

28 Months
1

Other Public
Order Offense
(23.7%, n=47)

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing
information necessary to perform the analysis.

Figure 12 identifies the median time of rearrest for each age cohort. The
measure of time to first recidivism event can be useful in distinguishing
offenders who recidivate early from those who eventually recidivate, but are
apparently crime-free for a longer interval. The Commission found that the
median amount of time between an offender’s release and his or her rearrest,
which is highlighted on each timeline, reflected the greater tendency for
younger cohorts to recidivate. Offenders who were younger than 30 when
they were released had the shortest median time to rearrest (17 months).
Conversely, the oldest offenders in the study, those 60 years and older, had the
longest time to rearrest (28 months).

Age 50 to 59 Years, 26.8%

30%

Age 60 Years or Older, 16.4%

20%
10%

Years After Release

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were
missing information necessary to perform the analysis.

Figure 13 presents a more detailed breakdown of rearrest rate by 11 age
groups. The Commission’s study revealed that the rearrest rate was highest
among offenders younger than 21 (67.6%) and those between the ages of 21 to
24 years old (66.6%) and declined in each subsequent age group.

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

Fig. 13 Rearrest Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders by Age at Release

Fig. 15 Reincarceration Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders by Age at Release
100%

100%

90%

90%
80%
70%
60%

67.6%

66.6%

50%

63.6%

80%
56.5%

40%

70%
50.1%

46.5%

30%

60%
38.8%

20%
10%

Younger
than 21
Years
n=398

21 to 24
Years
n=2,234

25 to 29
Years
n=4,164

30 to 34
Years
n=4,635

35 to 39
Years
n=3,888

40 to 44
Years
n=3,325

45 to 49
Years
n=2,569

30.1%

50 to 54
Years
n=1,734

50%
22.2%

55 to 59
Years
n=1,235

18.9%
60 to 64
Years
n=668

13.4%
65 Years or
Older
n=536

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were
missing information necessary to perform the analysis.

Fig. 14 Reconviction Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders by Age at Release
100%
90%
80%
70%
50%
40%

48.5%

48.4%

42.7%

30%

36.0%

20%
10%

Younger
than 21
Years
n=398

21 to 24
Years
n=2,234

25 to 29
Years
n=4,164

30 to 34
Years
n=4,635

31.3%

35 to 39
Years
n=3,888

30.3%

40 to 44
Years
n=3,325

22.3%

45 to 49
Years
n=2,569

15.9%
50 to 54
Years
n=1,734

12.2%

11.4%

55 to 59
Years
n=1,235

60 to 64
Years
n=668

30%

38.6%

33.7%

20%
10%

Younger
than 21
Years
n=398

21 to 24
Years
n=2,234

25 to 29
Years
n=4,164

27.7%

30 to 34
Years
n=4,635

24.2%

35 to 39
Years
n=3,888

23.0%

40 to 44
Years
n=3,325

17.4%

45 to 49
Years
n=2,569

12.8%
50 to 54
Years
n=1,734

9.0%

8.8%

55 to 59
Years
n=1,235

60 to 64
Years
n=668

4.1%

65 Years or
Older
n=536

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing
information necessary to perform the analysis.

The reconviction rate is highest among offenders younger than 21 (48.5%)
and those between the ages of 21 to 24 years old (48.4%) and declined in each
subsequent age group. Time to reconviction expanded with age and severity
of reconviction offense declined with age, in a pattern like that shown with
rearrest in Figure 14.25

60%

35.7%

40%

6.5%
65 Years or
Older
n=536

The reincarceration rate was highest among those between the ages of 21
to 24 years old (38.6%) and declined in each subsequent age group.26 Time
to reincarceration expands with age and severity of reincarceration offense
declined with age, in a pattern like that shown with rearrest in Figure 15.27
Demographics

White offenders had the lowest rearrest rate overall, starting with 59.1
percent for the youngest age group and declining to a low of 15.7 percent in
the 60 years or older age cohort (Figure 16 on the next page). Black offenders
had the highest rearrest rate overall, starting with 72.7 percent in the youngest
age cohort, which is the highest recidivism rate among all age categories. The
other racial category, which includes American Indians, Alaskan Natives and
Asians, had the second highest overall rearrest rate, starting with a 65.1 percent
rearrest rate in the youngest age cohort before declining.

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing
information necessary to perform the analysis.

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

Part Five:
RECIDIVISM RATES AMONG FEDERAL OFFENDERS BY AGE

Male offenders had a higher rearrest rate than female offenders in every age
category (Figure 18). In the younger than 30 age cohort, men had a 69.5 percent
rearrest rate compared to 47.6 percent for women. The rearrest rate declined
for both male and female offenders with each subsequent age group.

Fig. 16 Rearrest Rate of Recidivism Study Offenders by Race and Age at Release
100%
90%

Younger than 30 Years

30 to 39 Years

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%

50 to 59 Years

52.2%

36.0%

39.4%
23.7%
15.7%

20%
10%

Black

100%

50.5%

48.7%

90%

42.0%

39.2%
24.4%
19.1%

19.4%

White

65.1%

61.2%

59.9%

48.9%

60 Years or Older

Fig. 18 Rearrest Rate of Recidivism Study Offenders by Gender and Age at Release

72.7%

59.1%

30%

40 to 49 Years

80%

22.9%

10.9%

Hispanic

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%

74.4%

63.0%

30 to 39 Years

40 to 49 Years

62.9%

55.0%

51.5%
31.0%

17.2%

Less than High School

45.0%

30.6%

18.8%

High School Graduate

50 to 59 Years

60 Years or Older

47.3%
44.1%
37.9%

24.9%

16.1%

27.0%

Some College

21.2%

21.5%

16.5%

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

11.6%

College Graduate

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing
information necessary to perform the analysis.

40%

10%

Fig. 17 Rearrest Rate of Recidivism Study Offenders by Education and Age at Release
Younger than 30 Years

50%

56.2%

40 to 49 Years

50 to 59 Years

60 Years or Older

47.6%

46.4%
29.2%

20%

The overall rearrest rate decreased with every step of educational
achievement (Figure 17). Every education group experienced a decline in
rearrest rates as age increases. Offenders who did not complete high school
generally had the highest rearrest rates in all age categories compared to
other educational cohorts, starting with a 74.4 percent rearrest rate in the
youngest age cohort. College graduates had the lowest rearrest rates among the
educational groups.

90%

60%

69.5%

30 to 39 Years

30%

Other

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing
information necessary to perform the analysis.

100%

70%

Younger than 30 Years

17.1%

Male

40.7%

29.1%

15.3%

12.0%

Female

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing
information necessary to perform the analysis.

Federal Offense Type and Criminal History

Offenders whose primary offense involved robbery or firearms had higher
rearrest rates in all age categories (Figure 19). The Commission found that
firearm offenders had a rearrest rate of 79.3 percent in the younger than
30 cohort, the highest rearrest rate among all sentencing types. Robbery
offenders, unlike all other offense types, did not experience a continuous
decline in rearrest rates as they aged. Instead, rearrest rates increased from the
younger than 30 age cohort (66.2%) to the 40 to 49 age cohort (71.5%) before
experiencing a sharp decline.

Rearrest rates decline with age across every base offense level group
analyzed (Figure 20). Comparing similar age groups across base offense levels,
the Commission found that the lowest base offense level group had a modestly
higher recidivism rate across most age categories than those with higher base
offense levels. For example, in the younger than 30 age cohort, those with base
offense levels of 25 or lower had a 66.3 percent rearrest rate, somewhat higher
than those offenders with base offense levels of 32 or higher (60.2%).

Fig. 19 Rearrest Rate of Recidivism Study Offenders by Primary Offense Type at
Sentencing and Age at Release
100%

Younger than 30 Years

90%
80%
70%
60%
50%

79.3%

62.8%

52.0%

30.2%

26.8%

17.5%

20%

50 to 59 Years

10%

Drug Trafficking

80%

19.7%

Fraud

60%

23.3%

14.5%

All Other

30 to 39 Years

40 to 49 Years

27.9%

20%
0%

60 Years or Older

64.2%

30%

10%

50 to 59 Years

48.9%

40%

37.7%

Robbery

57.7%

50%

50.6%

12.5%

Firearms

70.2%

70%

34.5%

31.8%

Younger than 30 Years

90%

63.0%

54.6%

41.8%

100%

60 Years or Older

71.0% 71.5%
66.2%

53.6%

44.8%

42.3%

30%

40 to 49 Years

70.4%

62.5%

40%

30 to 39 Years

Fig. 21 Rearrest Rate of Recidivism Study Offenders by Weapon Enhancement and Age
at Release

53.0%

42.6%

17.2%

Weapon Enhancement

26.7%

16.4%

No Weapon Enhancement

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing
information necessary to perform the analysis.

Offenders with a weapon enhancement had a higher rearrest rate than
offenders who did not across all age groups (Figure 21). For example, federal
offenders who were younger than 30 and had a weapon enhancement had a
rearrest rate of 70.2 percent compared to 64.2 percent for those younger than
30 without a weapon enhancement.

Fig. 20 Rearrest Rate of Recidivism Study Offenders by Base Offense Level and Age at Release
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%

Younger than 30 Years
66.3%

40 to 49 Years

62.3%

55.7%
44.3%

27.6%

10%

30 to 39 Years

BOL 6 to 25

16.5%

52.9%

50 to 59 Years

43.8%

25.7%

BOL 26 to 31

19.3%

Fig. 22 Rearrest Rate of Recidivism Study Offenders by Criminal History Category and Age
at Release
100%

60 Years or Older

60.2%

Rearrest rates increased with the Criminal History Category (CHC) of
offenders across all age groups (Figure 22). For instance, offenders who were
younger than 30 and in CHC I had a 53 percent rearrest rate, compared to 79.5
percent for that same age group in CHC III, and 89.7 percent for that same age
group in CHC VI.

90%
80%
70%

48.4%

Younger than 30 Years

60%
50%

37.1%

40%

23.4%

BOL 32 to 43

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing
information necessary to perform the analysis.

30%

13.6%

20%
10%

30 to 39 Years

79.5%

70.1%

35.3%

25.9%
16.1%

11.3%

Category I

54.0%

47.2%
30.1%

22.6%

Category II

50 to 59 Years

86.3%

73.5% 72.4%

63.7%

55.8%

53.0%

40 to 49 Years

38.4%

51.6%
46.3%

60 Years or Older
90.6%
79.9%

71.3%

89.7%
84.6%
80.2%

64.9%

58.7%

44.4%

37.7%

25.5%

Category III

Category IV

Category V

Category VI

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing
information necessary to perform the analysis.

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

Part Five:
RECIDIVISM RATES AMONG FEDERAL OFFENDERS BY AGE

Federal Sentence Imposed

Offenders who received a prison only sentence had a higher rearrest rate
than offenders who received a different form of sentence (Figure 23). For
instance, offenders who received sentences of prison only and who were
younger than 30 years of age had a rearrest rate of 68.6 percent compared to
53.6 percent for offenders in the same age group who received split sentences
and 55.4 percent for offenders in the same age group who were sentenced to
probation and confinement. Offenders younger than 30 who were sentenced to
probation or fine only had a rearrest rate of 51.5 percent.

Rearrest rates declined with the age at release across all sentence lengths
(Figure 24). For example, among offenders with imprisonment sentences up to
six months, those younger than age 30 at release had the highest rearrest rate
(52.7%) while offenders 60 years and older at release had the lowest rearrest
rate (20.0%). In general, there was some association between the length of
the original federal sentence and rearrest rates. Offenders with the shortest
imprisonment sentences, of up to six months, had the lowest rearrest rates for
four of the five age groups studied. Offenders with sentences of 120 months
or longer had the highest rearrest rates for two of the age groups studied and
among the highest rearrest rates for the remaining three age groups. Among
all offenders sentenced to one year of imprisonment or longer, the association
between sentence length and rearrest rates was less clear. For example, for
offenders younger than 30 at release, the rearrest rate was approximately 70
percent regardless of the length of sentence imposed, ranging from 69.2 percent
for offenders sentenced from 12 to 23 months of imprisonment to 68.1 percent
for offenders sentenced to 120 months or longer, with the highest rearrest rate
of 71.4 percent for offenders sentenced to 60 to 119 months.

Fig. 23 Rearrest Rate of Recidivism Study Offenders by Type of Federal Sentence
Imposed and Age at Release
100%
90%

Younger than 30 Years

30 to 39 Years

40 to 49 Years

50 to 59 Years

60 Years or Older

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%

10%

56.9%

47.9%

41.8%

30.2%

26.6%

18.9%
15.0%

20%
0%

44.7%

35.5%
27.7%

30%

53.6%

55.4%

51.5%

68.6%

11.7%

9.2%

Probation or Fine Only

Probation and Confinement

29.6%

22.9%

19.0%

Prison/Community Split Sentence

Prison Only

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing
information necessary to perform the analysis.

Fig. 24 Rearrest Rate of Recidivism Study Offenders by Length of Federal Sentence and
Age at Release
100%
90%

Younger than 30 Years

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%

30 to 39 Years
69.2%

61.4%

52.7%

42.5%

28.9%
20.4%
20.0%

Up to 6 Months

40 to 49 Years

54.8%

33.3%
15.0%

6 to 11 Months

12.3%

12 to 23 Months

58.5%

52.8%

50.3%

47.6%

24.3%

68.1%

58.7%

56.9%

41.5%

60 Years or Older
71.4%

68.4%

52.8%

45.8%

50 to 59 Years

29.8%

19.0%

24 to 59 Months

32.4%

31.8%

20.9%

17.4%

60 to 119 Months

120 Months or More

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing
information necessary to perform the analysis.

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

18.0%

To compare the federal offenders in this study to offenders released from
state custody, the Commission compared the recidivism rates for prisoners in
the Commission’s recidivism cohort to a cohort of state prisoners released into
the community in 2005 using a five-year follow-up period (Figure 25).28 As
reflected in Figure 25, state prisoners had a higher rearrest rate than federal
prisoners in every age category. Also, the gap in the rearrest rate between state
and federal prisoners increased with each age group. Federal prisoners in the
youngest age group had a 63.2 percent rearrest rate compared to 84.1 percent
for state prisoners. In the oldest age group, the rearrest rate declined to 32.5
percent for federal offenders compared to 69.2 percent for state prisoners.
Fig. 25 Rearrest Rate of Recidivism Study Offenders for Federal and State Prisoners by Age
at Release: Five Year Post Release
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%

63.2%

84.1%

50%

80.3%
57.6%

77.0%
50.3%

40%

78.1%
44.5%

30%
20%

10%

24 Years or Younger

25 to 29 Years

30 to 34 Years

Federal Prisoners

State Prisoners

35 to 39 Years

69.2%
32.5%

40 Years Or Older

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT and Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30
States (2005). The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis.

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

Part Six

Conclusion

Part Six:
CONCLUSION

Conclusion
This is the fourth report in the Commission’s ongoing recidivism study. This
report examined the impact of the aging process on federal offender recidivism
and the impact of other offense and offender factors once age is accounted
for. The Commission found that older offenders are substantially less likely to
recidivate following release compared to younger cohorts. Among offenders
released younger than age 21, 67.6 percent were rearrested compared to 13.4
percent of those released age 65 or older. The pattern is consistent across age
groups, as age increases recidivism by any measure declined. Older offenders
who do recidivate do so later in the follow-up period, do so less frequently, and
had less serious recidivism offenses on average.

The Commission found that age is not the only factor associated with
recidivism. After accounting for age, criminal history as measured by the
offenders’ Criminal History Category was closely correlated with recidivism
rates. Demographic factors including gender (males had higher rates), race
and ethnicity (minorities had higher rates), and education levels (those with
lower education levels had higher rates) also stood out. Other factors found to
be associated with recidivism rates after accounting for age include sentence
length for offenders less than age 50: the shortest lengths are associated with
less recidivism up to sentences of one year, beyond which recidivism rates level
off. Some offense characteristics, in particular primary federal offense (firearms
and robbery, for example) and weapon enhancement, are associated with higher
recidivism rates.
The Commission will issue additional reports in this recidivism study series
in the coming months.

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

Part Seven

Endnotes

Endnotes
1
The United States Sentencing Commission is an independent agency in the judicial
branch of government. Established by the Sentencing Reform Act of 1984, its principal purposes
are (1) to establish sentencing policies and practices for the federal courts, including guidelines
regarding the appropriate form and severity of punishment for offenders convicted of federal
crimes; (2) to advise and assist Congress, the federal judiciary, and the executive branch in the
development of effective and efficient crime policy; and (3) to collect, analyze, research, and
distribute a broad array of information on federal crime and sentencing issues. See 28 U.S.C. §§
995(a)(14), (15), (20).

2
See U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Recidivism Among Federal Offenders: A
Comprehensive Overview (2016) [hereinafter Recidivism Overview Report], https://www.
ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/research-publications/2016/
recidivism_overview.pdf; U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking
Offenders (2017), https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/
research-publications/2017/20170221_Recidivism-Drugs.pdf; and U.S. Sentencing Comm’n,
The Past Predicts the Future: Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders
(2017), https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/researchpublications/2017/20170309_Recidivism-CH.pdf.
3

28 U.S.C. § 991(b)(2).

4
See U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Supplementary Report On The Initial Sentencing
Guidelines And Policy Statements 41–44 (1987), https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/
guidelines-manual/1987/manual-pdf/1987_Supplementary_Report_Initial_Sentencing_Guidelines.
pdf [hereinafter “Supplementary Report”].
5
See, e.g., U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Recidivism Among Offenders Receiving
Retroactive Sentencing Reductions: The 2007 Crack Cocaine Amendment (2014), https://
www.ussc.gov/research/research-publications/recidivism-among-offenders-receiving-retroactivesentencereductions-2007-crack-cocaine-amendment [hereinafter “Crack Cocaine Recidivism
Report”] and U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, 2016 Report to the Congress: Career Offender
Enhancements (2016), https://www.ussc.gov/research/congressional-reports/2016-reportcongress-career-offender-enhancements.
6
Public order offenses include violations of conditions of federal probation, federal
supervised release, or state parole and crimes such as obstruction of justice and failure to appear.

7
See Nat’l Institute of Justice, U.S. Dept. of Justice, Recidivism, https://web.archive.
org/web/20160120175242/http://www.nij.gov/topics/corrections/recidivism/pages/welcome.
aspx (Jan. 20, 2016).
8

See Recidivism Overview Report, supra note 2, at 7-8.

9
Revocations were not counted as reconvictions because the offenders were not convicted
of a new offense (even if the basis for revocation was a “new law violation”). Offenders whose terms
of supervision were revoked and who were sentenced to imprisonment were treated as having been
reincarcerated.
The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

10
See U.S. Gov’t Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions
Could Enhance The Completeness Of Records Used For Employment-Related Background
Checks (2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162.
11

Id.

See Recidivism Overview Report, supra note 2, at 23 (Figure 11).

Farrington, supra, at 191.

12 See Recidivism Overview Report, supra note 2, at n.56. The relationship between age
and propensity to commit crime was first documented in 1842. See Adolphe Quietelet, A Treatise
On Man And The Development of His Faculties (1842). See also, https://www.nij.gov/topics/
crime/Pages/delinquency-to-adult-offending.aspx. For more recent discussion of the development
of offending behavior, age-related risk factors, and the effects of life events on offending see D. P.
Farrington, Developmental and life-course criminology: Key theoretical and empirical issues. The 2002
Sutherland Award Address, 41 Criminology 221–55 (2003).
14
https://www.nij.gov/topics/crime/Pages/delinquency-to-adult-offending.aspx.
However, different types of offenses peak at different ages, and individual propensities differ from
aggregate totals. See David P. Farrington, “Age and Crime,” in 7 Crime and Justice: An Annual
Review of Research 189 (Michael Tonry & Norval Morris, eds., 1986).
16
Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Report, (2017), https://ucr.fbi.
gov/?came_from=https%3A//ucr.fbi.gov/word.

17
See Federal Bureau of Investigation, Crimes in the United States, https://ucr.fbi.gov/
crime-in-the-u.s.

18
Prior record data on federal offenders includes arrests reported prior to their 2005
release as well as any arrests that may be reported post-2005, in other words the entire criminal
record for federal offenders available at the time of Interstate Identification Index (III) data
collection. In contrast, all the 2016 U.S. arrests are a snapshot of a single year for all offenses in the
United States cleared through an arrest. The comparison is therefore covering widely different time
intervals, and is presented merely to suggest that the same general relationship of age and arrests
holds true for federal offenders as for all offenders arrested in 2016. While 2016 U.S. arrest data
is available for juvenile arrests, state reporting in III on juveniles is often unavailable, requiring
this comparison to adults only. To put the comparison on the same scale, five-year intervals were
chosen, beginning with the interval from age 20 through 24.
19
For example, if an offender is reported arrested for two charges at age 20 and one charge
at age 25, that offender adds two incidents to the age 20-24 group and one to the age 25-29 group.
20
See Federal Bureau of Investigation, Crimes in the United States 2016, at Table 20,
Arrests by Age 2016, https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016/topicpages/tables/table-20.

21
There are many theories attempting to explain this aggregate pattern of rising crime
through teenage years followed by steady decline at some point after age 20. The age-crime curve

captures both the prevalence of offending (the number of people committing a criminal act) and
the incidence (number of criminal acts those people commit). There is no single well-established
cause of offending, and contributing factors may be both biological (e.g., brain functioning changes
in transition from child to adult – see G. Sweeten, Alex Piquero, and L. Steinberg, Age and the
Explanation of Crime, Revisited, 42 J. Youth and Adolescence 921–38 (2013)) and sociological
(e.g., informal and formal bonds with others and with the community which may aggravate or deter
offending). Travis Hirschi and Michael Gottfredson argued that the shape of the age-crime curve
was similar across time and place, and largely unaffected by life events after childhood. Travis
Hirschi and Michael Gottfredson, Age and the Explanation of Crime, 89 Am. J. Sociology 552-84
(1983). They argue that individual differences are primarily explained by level of self-control and
assert that the decline in adulthood is due primarily to reduced incidents of crime. On the other
hand, Blumstein, Cohen, and Farrington assert that the decline in the aggregate age-crime curve
is explained at least in part by the termination of criminal careers for most offenders by early
adulthood. Alfred Blumstein, Jacqueline Cohen, and David P. Farrington, Criminal Career Research:
Its Value for Criminology, 26 Criminology 1 (1988). That is, the rapid decline in the age-crime curve
reflects desistance from crime. Sampson and Laub document termination in criminal careers for
a sample of offenders and the mechanisms which foster the turn away from crime. See Robert
Sampson and John H. Laub, Crime in the Making: Pathways and Turning Points Through Life
(1993) (expanding on adult choice making, arguing that different choices taken over the adult life
course, especially good marriages and other positive turning points over the life course help explain
desistance from crime.) Therefore, the decline in the aggregate age-crime curve may be attributable
to former offenders who have made the necessary life course changes. See Ray Paternoster and
Shawn Bushway, Desistance and the Feared Self: Toward an Identity Theory of Criminal Desistance,
99 J. Crim. L. & Criminology (2006) (that desistance from crime is a choice, that offenders who
previously identified with a criminal lifestyle and criminal associates may begin to find the costs
of this commitment exceeded by the benefits, providing a motivation to change their lives and
associates and desist from crime).

26
One exception occurs with reincarceration. Those under age 21, a small group, have a
slightly lower rate of reincarceration (35.7%) compared to those between ages 21 and 24 (38.6%).
27
The shortest time to arrest leading to reincarceration (29 months) is attributed to the
younger than 30 cohort and increases to 51 months in the last age group. The most serious type
of offense most likely to cause reincarceration also shifts with age from assault (for all age groups
under the age of 50) to public order offenses (for age 50 to 59) or drug trafficking (for age 60 or
older).

28
Matthew Durose, Alexia Cooper, and Howard Snyder, Bureau of Justice Statistics,
U.S. Dep’t of justice, Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 States in 2005: Patterns from
2005 to 2010 (2014), http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/rprts05p0510.pdf.

22
For more information on how an offender’s criminal history is addressed under
the sentencing guidelines, see U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Guidelines Manual, Ch. 4 (Nov. 2016)
[hereinafter USSG].
23
For more information on the relationship between CHC and recidivism see U.S.
Sentencing Comm’n, The Past Predicts the Future: Criminal History and Recidivism of
Federal Offenders, supra note 2.

24
These four different sentence types correspond to the four “Zones” (A-D) in the
Sentencing Table in the Guidelines Manual. See USSG, supra note 22, at Ch. 5, Pt. A (Sentencing
Table); see also USSG §§5B1.1 & 5C1.1 (setting forth the sentencing options for Zones A-D). Zone
A authorizes probation only; Zone B authorizes probation with a condition of confinement; Zone C
authorizes a “split” sentence of imprisonment and community confinement (e.g., home detention
or a halfway house); and Zone D authorizes sentences of imprisonment only. See USSG §§5B1.1 &
5C1.1.

25
The shortest time to arrest leading to a reconviction (29 months) is attributed to the
younger than 30 cohort and increases to 39 months in the last age group. The most serious type of
offense most likely to cause reconviction also shifts with age from assault (for all age groups under
the age of 50) to public order offenses (for age 50 to 59) or drug trafficking (for age 60 or older).
The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

Part Eight

Appendix

Part Eight:
APPENDIX

Recidivism Rates of Recidivism Study Offenders by Race and Age at Release

Total
Under 30 Years of Age
Race
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
30-39 Years of Age
Race
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
40-49 Years of Age
Race
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
50-59 Years of Age
Race
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
60 Years of Age or Older
Race
White
Black
Hispanic
Other

Rearrest
%
49.3%

Reconviction
%
31.7%

Reincarceration
%
24.7%

2,265
2,410
1,714
401

59.1%
72.7%
61.2%
65.1%
%

40.8%
51.4%
40.2%
49.1%
%

31.1%
40.7%
31.9%
44.1%
%

3,090
3,604
1,485
337

48.9%
59.9%
48.7%
50.5%
%

31.9%
36.4%
31.3%
35.0%
%

24.2%
28.0%
24.7%
27.9%
%

3,076
1,688
843
281

39.4%
52.2%
39.2%
42.0%
%

25.7%
30.9%
22.5%
27.1%
%

19.1%
24.2%
17.4%
23.8%
%

1,797
719
340
109

23.7%
36.0%
24.4%
22.9%
%

12.7%
18.8%
14.4%
11.9%
%

9.9%
14.7%
11.5%
9.2%
%

846
186
126
46

15.7%
19.4%
19.1%
10.9%

7.8%
15.6%
10.3%
6.5%

5.2%
12.9%
7.9%
6.5%

N
25,386

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest.
Such gaps occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence
of reconviction and reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of
Records Used for Employment-Related Background Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162.
SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The numbers in the table represent the total number of
offenders in each grouping, not the total number of offenders that recidivated. The total number of offenders in each grouping may not add to the total study group
because of missing information.

A-38

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

Recidivism Rates of Recidivism Study Offenders by Education and Age at Release

Total
Under 30 Years of Age
Education
Less Than High School
High School Graduate
Some College
College Graduate
30-39 Years of Age
Education
Less Than High School
High School Graduate
Some College
College Graduate
40-49 Years of Age
Education
Less Than High School
High School Graduate
Some College
College Graduate
50-59 Years of Age
Education
Less Than High School
High School Graduate
Some College
College Graduate
60 Years of Age or Older
Education
Less Than High School
High School Graduate
Some College
College Graduate

Rearrest
%
49.3%

Reconviction
%
31.7%

Reincarceration
%
24.7%

3,067
2,412
1,170
111

74.4%
62.9%
47.3%
27.0%
%

53.2%
43.0%
29.7%
16.2%
%

43.6%
33.1%
21.1%
11.7%
%

2,849
3,269
1,923
433

63.0%
55.0%
44.1%
21.5%
%

40.9%
35.0%
26.1%
11.8%
%

32.8%
27.0%
18.5%
7.4%
%

1,679
2,319
1,313
543

51.5%
45.0%
37.9%
21.2%
%

30.9%
28.6%
24.1%
12.5%
%

24.0%
22.2%
18.1%
8.7%
%

698
953
744
551

31.0%
30.6%
24.9%
16.5%
%

18.2%
16.2%
12.2%
8.2%
%

14.6%
12.5%
9.8%
5.8%
%

348
356
249
241

17.2%
18.8%
16.1%
11.6%

9.5%
11.2%
8.4%
5.8%

7.2%
7.9%
6.0%
4.2%

N
25,386

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

A-39

Part Eight:
APPENDIX

Recidivism Rates of Recidivism Study Offenders by Gender and Age at Release

Total
Under 30 Years of Age
Gender
Male
Female
30-39 Years of Age
Gender
Male
Female
40-49 Years of Age
Gender
Male
Female
50-59 Years of Age
Gender
Male
Female
60 Years of Age or Older
Gender
Male
Female

Rearrest
%
49.3%

Reconviction
%
31.7%

Reincarceration
%
24.7%

5,342
1,451

69.5%
47.6%
%

48.6%
31.2%
%

39.2%
21.7%
%

7,092
1,427

56.2%
40.7%
%

35.9%
23.7%
%

28.1%
15.8%
%

4,783
1,110

46.4%
29.1%
%

29.1%
16.8%
%

22.8%
10.7%
%

2,453
516

29.2%
15.3%
%

15.5%
8.7%
%

12.2%
6.4%
%

1,053
150

17.1%
12.0%

9.4%
8.0%

6.8%
6.0%

N
25,386

A-40

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

Recidivism Rates of Recidivism Study Offenders by Primary Offense Type and
Age at Release
Total
Under 30 Years of Age
Primary Offense Type
Drug Trafficking
Firearms
Fraud
Robbery
All Other
30-39 Years of Age
Primary Offense Type
Drug Trafficking
Firearms
Fraud
Robbery
All Other
40-49 Years of Age
Primary Offense Type
Drug Trafficking
Firearms
Fraud
Robbery
All Other
50-59 Years of Age
Primary Offense Type
Drug Trafficking
Firearms
Fraud
Robbery
All Other
60 Years of Age or Older
Primary Offense Type
Drug Trafficking
Firearms
Fraud
Robbery
All Other

Rearrest
%
49.3%

Reconviction
%
31.7%

Reincarceration
%
24.7%

3,110
1,077
511
287
1,811

62.5%
79.3%
53.6%
66.2%
63.0%
%

41.2%
60.2%
36.4%
43.2%
44.8%
%

31.7%
49.4%
25.1%
37.6%
36.2%
%

4,078
1,074
1,037
376
1,958

52.0%
70.4%
41.8%
71.0%
50.6%
%

31.5%
47.8%
26.1%
47.9%
32.5%
%

23.7%
39.8%
18.4%
42.8%
24.4%
%

2,151
721
977
298
1,745

42.3%
62.8%
31.8%
71.5%
37.7%
%

24.5%
40.4%
19.2%
51.7%
24.0%
%

18.4%
31.8%
13.4%
46.6%
18.2%
%

952
270
618
108
1,021

26.8%
44.8%
19.7%
54.6%
23.3%
%

14.1%
24.4%
10.4%
35.2%
12.1%
%

11.5%
19.3%
7.8%
27.8%
9.2%
%

286
96
297
29
496

17.5%
30.2%
12.5%
34.5%
14.5%

10.1%
20.8%
6.7%
13.8%
7.7%

6.6%
15.6%
4.7%
13.8%
5.9%

N
25,386

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

A-41

Part Eight:
APPENDIX

Recidivism Rates of Recidivism Study Offenders by Base Offense Level and
Age at Release
Total
Under 30 Years of Age
Base Offense Level
6 to 25
26 to 31
32 to 43
30-39 Years of Age
Base Offense Level
6 to 25
26 to 31
32 to 43
40-49 Years of Age
Base Offense Level
6 to 25
26 to 31
32 to 43
50-59 Years of Age
Base Offense Level
6 to 25
26 to 31
32 to 43
60 Years of Age or Older
Base Offense Level
6 to 25
26 to 31
32 to 43

Rearrest
%
49.3%

Reconviction
%
31.7%

Reincarceration
%
24.7%

4,682
1,393
716

66.3%
62.3%
60.2%
%

46.9%
41.4%
38.7%
%

37.4%
31.2%
31.2%
%

5,046
1,673
1,801

55.7%
52.9%
48.4%
%

36.6%
32.1%
27.8%
%

28.8%
23.6%
20.8%
%

4,073
901
913

44.3%
43.8%
37.1%
%

28.0%
26.1%
21.9%
%

21.8%
19.8%
15.8%
%

2,192
377
397

27.6%
25.7%
23.4%
%

15.1%
11.7%
12.9%
%

11.6%
10.1%
10.3%
%

944
119
140

16.5%
19.3%
13.6%

9.2%
10.9%
7.9%

6.9%
7.6%
5.0%

N
25,386

A-42

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

Recidivism Rates of Recidivism Study Offenders by Weapon Enhancement and Age at Release

Total
Under 30 Years of Age
Weapon Enhancement
No Weapon Enhancement
Weapon Enhancement
30-39 Years of Age
Weapon Enhancement
No Weapon Enhancement
Weapon Enhancement
40-49 Years of Age
Weapon Enhancement
No Weapon Enhancement
Weapon Enhancement
50-59 Years of Age
Weapon Enhancement
No Weapon Enhancement
Weapon Enhancement
60 Years of Age or Older
Weapon Enhancement
No Weapon Enhancement
Weapon Enhancement

Rearrest
%
49.3%

Reconviction
%
31.7%

Reincarceration
%
24.7%

6,136
660

64.2%
70.2%
%

44.4%
48.9%
%

34.9%
40.6%
%

7,509
1,014

53.0%
57.7%
%

33.7%
35.2%
%

25.8%
27.8%
%

5,356
538

42.6%
48.9%
%

26.4%
30.5%
%

20.2%
24.7%
%

2,747
222

26.7%
27.9%
%

14.2%
15.8%
%

11.1%
12.2%
%

1,140
64

16.4%
17.2%

9.2%
9.4%

6.6%
9.4%

N
25,386

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

A-43

Part Eight:
APPENDIX

Recidivism Rates of Recidivism Study Offenders by Criminal History Category
and Age at Release
Total
Under 30 Years of Age
Criminal History Category
CHC I
CHC II
CHC III
CHC IV
CHC V
CHC VI
30-39 Years of Age
Criminal History Category
CHC I
CHC II
CHC III
CHC IV
CHC V
CHC VI
40-49 Years of Age
Criminal History Category
CHC I
CHC II
CHC III
CHC IV
CHC V
CHC VI
50-59 Years of Age
Criminal History Category
CHC I
CHC II
CHC III
CHC IV
CHC V
CHC VI
60 Years of Age or Older
Criminal History Category
CHC I
CHC II
CHC III
CHC IV
CHC V
CHC VI

Rearrest
%
49.3%

Reconviction
%
31.7%

Reincarceration
%
24.7%

3,771
895
1,095
568
244
214

53.0%
70.1%
79.5%
86.3%
90.6%
89.7%
%

34.1%
47.2%
56.7%
66.9%
73.8%
72.9%
%

25.4%
35.5%
46.5%
57.4%
66.0%
61.7%
%

3,890
1,091
1,371
835
483
803

35.3%
55.8%
63.7%
73.5%
79.9%
84.6%
%

19.6%
32.9%
40.2%
47.1%
59.2%
63.5%
%

12.9%
23.1%
31.5%
39.8%
51.6%
54.8%
%

3,135
674
746
398
282
626

25.9%
47.2%
54.0%
72.4%
71.3%
80.2%
%

14.0%
26.9%
33.0%
49.0%
46.5%
59.1%
%

9.4%
18.7%
24.5%
40.0%
39.4%
51.9%
%

1,877
316
292
153
92
225

16.1%
30.1%
38.4%
51.6%
58.7%
64.9%
%

8.1%
13.6%
19.9%
32.7%
32.6%
40.0%
%

5.5%
9.5%
17.8%
28.1%
29.4%
33.8%
%

876
106
106
41
18
53

11.3%
22.6%
25.5%
46.3%
44.4%
37.7%

5.9%
12.3%
16.0%
29.3%
27.8%
22.6%

4.1%
9.4%
11.3%
19.5%
22.2%
20.8%

N
25,386

A-44

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

Recidivism Rates of Recidivism Study Offenders by Sentence Type and Age at Release

Total
Under 30 Years of Age
Sentence Type
Probation or Fine Only
Probation and Confinement
Prison/Confinement Split
Prison Only
30-39 Years of Age
Sentence Type
Probation or Fine Only
Probation and Confinement
Prison/Confinement Split
Prison Only
40-49 Years of Age
Sentence Type
Probation or Fine Only
Probation and Confinement
Prison/Confinement Split
Prison Only
50-59 Years of Age
Sentence Type
Probation or Fine Only
Probation and Confinement
Prison/Confinement Split
Prison Only
60 Years of Age or Older
Sentence Type
Probation or Fine Only
Probation and Confinement
Prison/Confinement Split
Prison Only

Rearrest
%
49.3%

Reconviction
%
31.7%

Reincarceration
%
24.7%

1,039
341
261
5,144

51.5%
55.4%
53.6%
68.6%
%

34.2%
34.6%
34.1%
48.3%
%

21.6%
23.8%
25.3%
39.5%
%

989
302
244
6,971

35.5%
44.7%
41.8%
56.9%
%

20.7%
27.8%
25.4%
36.3%
%

11.8%
14.9%
16.0%
28.9%
%

835
282
268
4,501

27.7%
26.6%
30.2%
47.9%
%

16.9%
14.9%
17.2%
29.9%
%

9.1%
11.0%
11.2%
23.8%
%

504
179
140
2,145

18.9%
19.0%
22.9%
29.6%
%

8.9%
10.6%
13.6%
15.9%
%

5.2%
7.3%
7.1%
13.2%
%

246
87
60
811

15.0%
9.2%
11.7%
18.0%

10.2%
4.6%
5.0%
9.7%

6.5%
3.5%
3.3%
7.4%

N
25,386

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

A-45

Part Eight:
APPENDIX

Recidivism Rates of Recidivism Study Offenders by Length of Federal Sentence
and Age at Release
Total
Under 30 Years of Age
Length of Federal Sentence
Up to 6 Months
6 to 11 Months
12 to 23 Months
24 to 59 Months
60 to 119 Months
120 Months or More
30-39 Years of Age
Length of Federal Sentence
Up to 6 Months
6 to 11 Months
12 to 23 Months
24 to 59 Months
60 to 119 Months
120 Months or More
40-49 Years of Age
Length of Federal Sentence
Up to 6 Months
6 to 11 Months
12 to 23 Months
24 to 59 Months
60 to 119 Months
120 Months or More
50-59 Years of Age
Length of Federal Sentence
Up to 6 Months
6 to 11 Months
12 to 23 Months
24 to 59 Months
60 to 119 Months
120 Months or More
60 Years of Age or Older
Length of Federal Sentence
Up to 6 Months
6 to 11 Months
12 to 23 Months
24 to 59 Months
60 to 119 Months
120 Months or More

Rearrest
%
49.3%

Reconviction
%
31.7%

Reincarceration
%
24.7%

294
264
1,204
2,457
995
185

52.7%
61.4%
69.2%
68.4%
71.4%
68.1%
%

34.7%
43.9%
48.6%
48.8%
47.8%
48.1%
%

26.2%
31.8%
40.3%
40.3%
38.9%
39.5%
%

278
197
1,077
2,647
1,903
1,110

42.5%
54.8%
52.8%
56.9%
58.7%
58.5%
%

25.5%
32.0%
34.6%
36.8%
37.2%
36.0%
%

16.2%
26.9%
27.1%
29.5%
29.4%
29.4%
%

273
190
793
1,734
1,049
727

28.9%
45.8%
41.5%
47.6%
50.3%
52.8%
%

17.6%
23.7%
25.5%
29.1%
32.6%
34.4%
%

11.4%
16.8%
21.8%
22.4%
25.6%
28.6%
%

147
69
399
852
446
370

20.4%
33.3%
24.3%
29.8%
31.8%
32.4%
%

12.2%
17.4%
16.0%
15.1%
16.1%
17.8%
%

7.5%
11.6%
13.0%
12.6%
13.0%
15.7%
%

55
40
171
321
155
129

20.0%
15.0%
12.3%
19.0%
17.4%
20.9%

12.7%
15.0%
6.4%
9.4%
9.0%
10.9%

9.1%
7.5%
5.3%
7.5%
6.5%
8.5%

N
25,386

A-46

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

Recidivism Rates for Federal and State Prisoners by Age at Release: Five Year Post-Release

24 Years or Younger
Federal or State Prisoners
Federal Prisoners
State Prisoners
25 to 29 Years
Federal or State Prisoners
Federal Prisoners
State Prisoners
30 to 34 Years
Federal or State Prisoners
Federal Prisoners
State Prisoners
35 to 39 Years
Federal or State Prisoners
Federal Prisoners
State Prisoners
40 Years or Older
Federal or State Prisoners
Federal Prisoners
State Prisoners

Rearrest
%

Reconviction
%

Reincarceration
%

1,916
N/A

63.2%
84.1%
%

42.9%
N/A
%

35.1%
N/A
%

3,489
N/A

57.6%
80.3%
%

34.9%
N/A
%

28.2%
N/A
%

3,966
N/A

50.3%
77.0%
%

28.5%
N/A
%

22.2%
N/A
%

3,249
N/A

44.5%
78.1%
%

24.4%
N/A
%

19.7%
N/A
%

7,925
N/A

32.5%
69.2%

17.3%
N/A

13.6%
N/A

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest.
Such gaps occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence
of reconviction and reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of
Records Used for Employment-Related Background Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162.
SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT and Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of Prisoners
Released in 30 States (2005).

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

A-47