Publication
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February 11, 2016
Risk Assessment Instruments in Correctional Settings, Council of State Governments Justice Center, 2013 ! Risk!Assessment!Instruments!Validated!and!Implemented!in!Correctional!Settings!in!the!United! States:!!! An!Empirical!Guide!! ! An#executive#summary#drawn#from#Sarah#L.#Desmarais#and#Jay#P.#Singh,#Instruments#for# Assessing#Recidivism#Risk:#A#Review#of#Validation#Studies#Conducted#in#the#U.S.#(New!York:# Council!of!State!Governments!Justice!Center,!2013).! INTRODUCTION! ! The!rates!of!crime,!incarceration,!and!correctional!supervision!are!disproportionately! high!in!the!U.S.!and!translate!into!exorbitant!costs!to!individuals,!the!public,!and!the!state.! Within!three!years!of!release!from!jail!or!prison,!twoSthirds!of!offenders!are!rearrested!and!half! are!incarcerated!for!a!new!crime!or!parole!violation.1!Though!many!offenders!recidivate,!a! considerable!proportion!do!not.!Thus,!there!is!a!need!to!identify!those!offenders!at!greater!risk! of!recidivism!and!to!allocate!resources!and!target!risk!management!and!rehabilitation!efforts! accordingly.!Risk!assessment,!a!crucial!component!to!implementing!evidenceSbased!recidivism! reduction!strategies,!is!the!process!of!estimating!the!likelihood!an!offender!will!recidivate!by! identifying!those!offenders!at!higher!risk!and!in!greater!need!of!interventions.!Assessment! results,!based!on!ratings!of!empirically!or!theoretically!based!risk!and/or!protective!factors,!can! be!used!to!determine!intervention!targets,!appropriate!programming!level!and!intensity,!and! supervision!level.!There!is!overwhelming!evidence!to!suggest!that!assessments!of!risk! completed!using!structured!approaches!produce!estimates!that!are!both!more!accurate!and! more!consistent!across!assessors!compared!to!subjective!or!unstructured!approaches.2!More! and!more,!structured!risk!assessment!approaches!are!being!used!in!correctional!agencies.3! ! The!nearly!100Syear!history!of!risk!assessment!instrument!development!has!been! documented!on!several!occasions.4!The!focus!and!structure!of!risk!assessment!tools!have! shifted!significantly!over!time.!Studies!have!identified!the!important!evolution!of!risk! assessment!and!predictability!of!criminal!behavior,*!from!Burgess’!(1928)5!seminal!work!on!the! application!of!a!systemized!prediction!methodology!through!the!progression!of!the!four!distinct! generations!summarized!below.!! ! ! The!first!generation!of!risk!assessment!is!best!described!as!unstructured!professional! judgment,!in!which!the!assessor!relies!on!his!or!her!professional!training!and!information! gathered!from!the!incarcerated!individual,!official!records,!or!other!sources!to!inform!his!or!her! …